Looking at CRWV after the Meta deal

I’m digging into CoreWeave (CRWV) after a run of heavyweight contracts: a $14.2B deal with Meta and an additional $6.5B expansion with OpenAI. That streak flipped sentiment fast - nearly half of covering analysts now have buy-equivalent ratings vs. <20% in mid-July. As one analyst put it: 

The Street is finally seeing the stickiness and the demand story

Technicals

Price is grinding higher from the late-summer base and holding a rising micro-channel. I’m marking $118 as first support (prior shelf/VWAP reaction), with $85 as the deeper line in the sand. On the upside, $137 is the near-term gate; above that, the measured move points to $172 (prior supply zone). The SMA(9) ≈ $129.5 is still curling up, and RSI ~60-64 shows constructive momentum without a blow-off. Volume on green days has crept higher - not a melt-up, but healthy participation.

Fundamentals That Matter Right Now

The Meta and OpenAI agreements reduce the “one big customer” worry and lengthen visibility. Evercore initiated Outperform with a $175 12-month target, arguing that strong demand can “translate into future profits” as footprint scales. The Nvidia ecosystem tailwind matters here - CRVW is effectively a specialized landlord for GPU compute.

CRVW’s model - essentially a specialized landlord for GPU compute - places it at the center of the Nvidia ecosystem. The Nvidia backing gives it further credibility as enterprise AI spend moves from hype to deployment.

The Bear Case

CRVW still posted a $300M GAAP loss last quarter, and consensus expects losses to stretch out for another 7+ quarters. Some analysts remain skeptical:

• HedgEye reiterated a short position.
• D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria gave the stock a $36 target, arguing:

They’re destroying value with every data center they build.

Bears argue that if AI capex cools or build costs stay elevated, CRVW’s growth story could unravel fast.

Bigger Picture

Since the March IPO (backed by Nvidia), shares are +230% from debut but still -27% off the June peak. September was a reset month (+33%) as new deals hit the tape. Macro-wise, the AI capex cycle is in what one PM called “phase two” - less FOMO, more deployment - which tends to reward infra names with signed capacity. As Global X’s Tejas Dessai said, 

Once you get these data centers up and running…the demand exists.

How I’m thinking about risk

I’m treating CRVW as a high-beta infra play: contracts give visibility, but earnings leverage is lagged and capex-heavy. For me, $118 is the health check. Lose it with volume and the path opens to $85 where the prior base and risk budget need a revisit. Above $137, I like a step-up toward $172, which lines up with the old supply band.

My conclusion

I’m bullish near to mid-term, but I respect the volatility. The technicals (rising trendline, higher lows, momentum confirmation) support the recent sentiment shift.

If CRVW clears $137 and holds, I’m looking for a potential move toward $172. If it drops below $118 with volume, I’ll take a step back and let the story reprove itself - with $85 as the line in the sand.

For me, this is still a high-beta infrastructure trade. The contracts give visibility. The earnings leverage? Still to come.