Nike (NKE) Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings & Investor Sentiment: Is the Swoosh Still a Buy?

Nike’s latest earnings report has reignited the debate among investors: is this iconic brand merely stumbling, or has it lost its edge in an increasingly competitive market? With Q4 2025 financials now public and retail investor sentiment sharply divided, it's time to reassess Nike’s near- and long-term prospects.

Profitability recovery despite flat revenue

Q4 2025 Earnings Snapshot: A Mixed Performance

Nike delivered a profitable quarter, beating bottom-line expectations, yet revenue stagnation and tepid forward guidance raised fresh concerns.

✅ Key Positives

• EPS beat: $0.99 vs. $0.66 expected
• Net income rose 45% YoY to $1.5B
• Gross margin improved to 44.7% (up 160bps YoY), aided by leaner inventory and fewer markdowns
• Inventory levels declined 10% YoY, indicating normalization after overstock problems
• Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales rose 10%, showcasing strength in owned channels

❌ Key Negatives

• Revenue miss: $12.6B vs. $12.9B expected (flat YoY)
• North America revenue fell 3% — a worrying sign for its largest market
• China revenue rose just 4% — seen as underwhelming given earlier optimism
• Wholesale sales fell 6%, highlighting distributor weakness
• FY26 guidance: management expects only low single-digit revenue growth

📈 Stock reaction

At the time of writing, Nike stock initially fell by 6%, but rose by nearly 12% within an hour

This mix of profitability and stagnant growth has sharpened divisions among investors about Nike’s trajectory.

What Retail Investors Are Saying: Reddit Sentiment Analysis

Retail investors community offers a qualitative pulse of what long-term, self-directed investors think of Nike — and it’s not uniformly bullish.

Prevailing Skepticism

Many users feel Nike’s brand is fading, especially among younger consumers. Brands like Hoka, On Running, and Lululemon are seen as fresher and more relevant. There’s also frustration around perceived declines in product quality and uninspiring new collections.

From a financial standpoint, concerns include:

• Weak sales and earnings momentum
• Rising competition and saturated markets
• Uncertainty around the effectiveness of new leadership and strategy

This looks like a falling knife — sales down, margins under pressure, and the brand losing heat.

Bullish Minority: Value in the Dip?

Despite widespread caution, a vocal group sees opportunity:

• Nike’s current P/E (~20) is well below its 5-year average (~41), signaling possible undervaluation
• Gross margin recovery and inventory normalization hint at operational improvements
• Recent leadership changes and marketing revamps (Skims collab, Super Bowl ads) show signs of renewal
• Nike still has global brand power and dominant sponsorship deals (NBA, NFL, MLB)

If you believe in the brand long-term, this is not a bad time to start averaging in.

Outlook: A “Show-Me” Story in Progress

Nike’s Q4 2025 earnings confirm that profitability is stabilizing, but growth remains elusive. The stock now trades at a lower multiple compared to its historical average, making it look attractive from a valuation standpoint — but only if it can reignite top-line momentum.

The retail investor consensus appears to be:

• Not a strong buy, yet no longer a sell at any cost
• Most see Nike as a watchlist stock, awaiting better signals from future quarters
• Bulls want to see DTC growth continue and wholesale stabilize
• Bears are waiting to see if brand relevance and demand can recover

Final Verdict

Nike is at a crossroads. Its brand power remains formidable, and recent efforts to clean up inventory and expand margins are working. But flat sales, regional softness, and weak FY26 guidance raise doubts about whether the company can reclaim its former growth trajectory.

For long-term investors, Nike is neither a value trap nor a screaming buy — it’s a strategic hold with potential upside if management executes well in the coming quarters. Until then, investors will remain cautiously on the sidelines, watching to see if the swoosh can regain its arc.

Disclosure: This article reflects public earnings data and sentiment analysis from Reddit and should not be interpreted as financial advice.