In short, the S&P 500 continues to move higher and the next target is the 6,000 mark. There will probably be a pause at this level, and if it continues like this, this year will be the best since 2000. It is interesting to note that the Nasdaq 100 is in neutral territory in terms of relative strength against the S&P 500, while the Russell 2000 is actually slightly weaker in this statistic.Of course, there are a number of warning signs that this bull market is overbought. It is worth noting that insider buying has fallen to its lowest level since Covid. In the US fund manager survey, the bears are at an all-time low and the investment ratio of small speculators in the US has never been so bullish since 1988.In normal market phases and without the strong months of a US election year, I would not wait for my stops to take effect, but realize profits. Why am I not doing this? The charts continue to show an upward trend and corrections are at most back to the level of the 21- or 50-day moving average. In short: healthy charts! Next week is the start of the reporting season, and if a correction - the alternative scenario - occurs, that would be very healthy.Nevertheless, I expect a volatile but direct continuation of the upward movement. In this investment cycle, where there are more and more equity experts and advisors, any pre-emptive risk management is detrimental to performance. Enthusiasm for the stock market is increasingly driven by greed - with the MSCI World up more than 15%. The focus is no longer on the “Magnificent 7”, but on strong individual stocks from sectors that are benefiting from renewed interest rate cuts and rising debt - this applies to many sectors. The magic word will be “government support programs for infrastructure investments”.The phase in which institutional investors are repeatedly (rightly) skeptical, while the “small speculators” are increasingly right, is the phase of the “milkmaid bull market”. I am curious to see whether my assessment of the cycle is correct, as it was in 1998-2000. It would be a good time and could last quite a long time.Despite my bullish scenario, I hedge my profits relatively tightly and continuously and focus on individual stock setups, because greed and fear are the worst advisors on the stock market.

Target 2 high with 17.99%

HON went to the Target 2 of the purple XABCD but not as far as it could have - at first (perfect ABCD and Rebound of the Black Swan)...

The S&P 500 successfully tested its previous high at 5,670 points. At this level, buyers consistently entered the market. Therefore, my forecast from last week remains: both a cosmetic correction down to 5,615 points and a direct continuation of the upward move towards the 6,000-point mark are possible. Greed and optimism are high, but there’s still room for more, as indicated by the CNN Fear and Greed Index.

Skepticism is growing among many "crypto enthusiasts" because they are not used to this prolonged sideways movement. Usually, the price action is more dynamic, but Bitcoin is increasingly in institutional hands. This means, in my view, that the movements are becoming slower—at least by crypto standards. I still have some liquidity on the sidelines and expect to invest it in the coming weeks.

BABA läuft wie erwartet und bildet ein mögliches Adam & Eva. Die 121$ und die 127$ müssten gebrochen werden um das Adam & Eva zu bestätigen.

Bitcoin has established a higher low, and now all that's missing is an impulsive trend break for a full trend reversal. At the same time, there’s renewed activity in alternative coins, indicating that Bitcoin could be an attractive option once central banks start printing money again. A new wave of debt is looming to "print away" the inevitable recession, making Bitcoin & Co. an interesting option to protect one's money value, especially against further inflationary trends.I have increased my investment quota, and since Bitcoin appears to be the most stable, I have expanded my position. If an impulsive breakout occurs and alternative coins follow, I may consider reallocating my investments. 

After the Chinese indices were in a downtrend for a long time, the Chinese dragon has awakened with a "bang." The interest rate cut and various investment programs by the Chinese central bank and government organizations for real estate and stocks are reminiscent of Alan Greenspan, who started to officially intervene in the financial markets after Lehman.In my view, the Chinese are not dogmatic and are quite willing to import successful models. The use of one's currency and printing money to strengthen the country is more than common in the West, so why not in China? I consider this trend reversal to be sustainable, even if I expect a certain pullback after this impulsive breakout. I'm not alone in this view, as this article about a US hedge fund manager also indicates: https://lnkd.in/dwsf9ravDespite the euphoria, it’s important to note that political risks from tensions between China and the USA still exist. Therefore, my position in Chinese stocks will never exceed the 10% mark of my portfolio unless it’s driven by price gains. The chart shows that investors have followed this breakout, investing in major Chinese ETFs (such as the Krane Internet Stocks ETF). Among them are likely some hedge funds that were caught off guard and now have to cover their short positions.My focus is on large Chinese companies and European firms with significant stakes in Chinese companies. My scenario is that the second gap will close, offering another buying opportunity. The first gap, in my view, will remain open as a "runaway gap."

While last week it looked as if the US indices would simply ignore the weak seasonal period until mid-October, the daily candles of the last three days on all three indices I monitor show that they are likely to test the 10-week moving average. Should stronger downward momentum emerge, it could even go as far as the 30-week line - but this is clearly the alternative scenario. Specifically, I expect a small reduction in the overbought market situation on the S&P 500 up to the short-term uptrend in the region of 5,580 points.The positive underlying trend towards the end of the year remains in place for all three indices. The Chinese central bank provided a strong stimulus this week. In addition to the FED and the ECB, the Chinese central bank is now a new player actively intervening in the financial markets. In addition to interest rate cuts, various measures were also adopted, such as a quota for real estate and equity investments. In my view, this clearly falls into the category of “learning from the best”. After all, why should only the US dollar be used as a “financial weapon”? With Chinese share prices rising again, these securities are also becoming a kind of currency that can be used in corporate takeovers - a practice that has long been standard for US companies.In the USA, my focus continues to be on stable individual stocks, which are also holding up better in this setback. It is also interesting to note that commodity stocks in the US have shown renewed strength. I am curious to see whether a stock will come to the fore here, although they currently seem too volatile and not (yet) trend-stable to me. I have unwound my portfolio hedges despite the expectation of a correction, as my risk budget was exhausted and my stocks showed a relatively low susceptibility to correction. Should the correction start with more momentum instead of being as sluggish as it is at present, I may open a partial portfolio hedge via the S&P 500. However, my main focus is rather on smaller portfolio optimizations in the context of the expected correction with almost full investment.