Besonders Interessant für ein mögliches Etappen Ziel ist die Custerzone, welche sich aus den Rebounds 127 dieser beiden Muster ergibt. 

Quoting yourself is rather difficult, but since I base my own investments on these market assessments, it is sometimes necessary to remind yourself of your strategies and to have the red line in your strategy in such turbulent times. So here is my approach so far: I formulated these two options in the first week of August: Option 1: The correction is complete and the 5,500 point mark is overtraded at the end of the week and the daily volume also goes with the rise. On this basis, I will then select and invest in the leading sectors and stocks of this movement. Option 2: In my view, the best option for the sustainability of the trend. After rising to the 4,400-4,500 point region, the downward movement develops a second, stronger downward leg to the 4,800 to 4,900 point region. In this region, I will then select the sectors and stocks that have held up relatively well and then invest the first positions. The stocks that recover dynamically after a sell-off are also interesting. That was my approach last week: After a strong week, it looks very much like option 1, because on the one hand the downtrend was overtraded and on the other hand the volume was also decent, although not stronger than in the sell-off the week before last. In addition, a positive divergence can be seen in the market breadth (A/D line), which has marked a new all-time high, while the S&P500 has not yet managed to do so. In the current week, the positive signs for option 1 continue and of course it is a pity that I did not take the direct “V-recovery” through my risk management, but I would do it again at any time, because according to Warren Buffet: Rule No. 1: Never lose money, rule No. 2 don't forget rule No. 1. The risk management mode is currently in the background and the search for opportunities is in the foreground. Why? After the strong Friday, the S&P500 is close to its all-time high and, as described in my primary scenario, can overshoot this to 5,770. After that, I expect a setback to the 5,420 region or a volatile sideways pause. I would also make an index investment during this setback; if the market continues directly until the end of 2024, I will successively collect individual stocks with attractive chart constellations, as I did this week, and will be fully invested by the end of September 2024. Is a deeper correction “still possible”? Yes, it is, but the probability has fallen sharply for the following reasons: We will enter the “normal” positive stock market cycle from October. The already seasonally strong last quarter will be strengthened by the significant presidential cycle (see also chart). The market breadth of the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq100 have all developed a positive divergence in price performance versus market breadth. This means that although prices are still below the all-time high, the market breadth (roughly speaking the number of rising stocks) has formed a new high. This also shows that this rise is much broader basis than the rise at the beginning of 2024, which was primarily based on “Big Tec”. The V-recovery is a strong signal and has triggered the “Follow Through Days” indicator, here you can find the definition https://mobile.traderfox.com/blog/aktien-magazin/v-formige-erholung-der-us-indizes-zwei-follow-through-days-nach-william-oneil-was-gilt-es-nun-zu-beachten/p-125276/ Now the question with the interest rate cuts, what do they trigger? Simply put, a statistic from Goldman Sachs says that if no recession follows the first interest rate cut, we will see rising prices. If we go into a recession after the interest rate cut, the average share performance is strongly negative. For the second quarter of 2025 onwards, things do not look so rosy at the moment, as the interest rate differential between 10-year U.S. government bonds and the three-month interest rate is still negative, but an end to the divergence has always been followed by a recession. Not directly, but with a gap of 3-6 months. The only option would be, as in Corona after this signal, to “wash away” the recession again by printing money. Not likely, but also an option. The U.S. remains my investment focus, especially after the continued high relative strength against the DAX. The strongest stocks were in real estate and commodities in the U.S.A.. Currently, the sector clock in the U.S. (see chart) is moving very tightly and therefore I am currently only selecting according to individual stock settings and the stock “only” has to be relatively strong in its sector. Today I will describe “only the precious metal” in more detail and merely add my DAX scenario here, as this also remains unchanged and for me the music is currently playing in the U.S. and this is also my clear investment focus.

Nach dem AMD im März '24 sein ATH erreicht hat bei 227,22$, gab es ein Abverkauf bis zum 05.08.24 bei 122,30$ wo es ein Cluster gab mit dem 1.38 Fib vom rotem ABCD und dem 0.786Fib des Anstieges zum ATH. 

BTC hat fast den 1.38 Rebound vom gelbem Muster erreicht und dabei in Adam & Eva gebildet. Das erste Ziel wäre bei ca. 76.6k. Davor muss er aber erst die 70/71k brechen und zum Schluss noch die 73k danach sollte der Weg frei sein zu den 85k und höher.

We arrive the intra Rebound 127 (grey). 

Im Weekly hatte BABA ein großen Wolf der den Kurs bis nach unten gebracht hat.

I formulated these two options last week:Option 1: The correction is complete and the 5,500 point mark is overtraded at the end of the week and the daily volume also goes with the rise. On this basis, I will then select and invest in the leading sectors and stocks of this movement.Option 2: In my view, the best option for the sustainability of the trend. After rising to the 4,400-4,500 point region, the downward movement develops a second, stronger downward leg to the 4,800 to 4,900 point region. In this region I will then select the sectors and stocks that have held up relatively well and then invest the first positions. The stocks that recover relatively dynamically after a sell-off are also interesting.After a strong week, it looks very much like option 1, because on the one hand the downward trend was overtraded and on the other hand the volume was also decent, even if not stronger than in the sell-off the week before last. In addition, a positive divergence can be seen in the market breadth (A/D line), which has marked a new all-time high, while the S&P500 has not yet managed to do so.Is option 2 completely off the table? No! A sharp countermovement is quite common after such sell-offs. Nevertheless, I will continue to focus my investments on option 1. In principle, I would have tended to focus on index investments with option 2, but conversely I will be looking for individual share investments in the coming week, which on the one hand were relatively stable during the downward movement, but on the other hand also picked up again in the last trading week. It is important that I follow the market, but do not chase after it, but cautiously build up my investment quota.The same scenario applies to the Nasdaq100 and the index is also of interest to me in my search for individual investments, as it has regained its relative strength against the S&P500. The index is less interesting for me, but rather the individual stocks with the first-mentioned criteria.The U.S. small cap index Russell 2000 was unable to maintain its relative strength against the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 and is therefore only the second priority for my stock selection. Nevertheless, this index also has the opportunity to chase records towards the end of the year.If the last two trading days were just a false breakout, I will act again according to option 2 and stop the successive expansion of investments, but without selling in a hurry.

Auch die untere Seite des Dreiecks beim Bitcoin ist stabil. Jetzt wird es in der Region von 73.000 U.S. Dollar auf der Oberseite wieder zu einem Test kommen. Die anderen Kryptowährungen waren allerdings diese Woche weit weniger stark. Meine noch offene Liquidität werde ich erst bei einem Ausbruch aus dem Dreieck auf Wochenbasis investieren.

Seit dem ATH von BTC befindet sich der Kurs seit Wochen in einer Korrekturphase.

Looking at the 4h Chart we can see an ABCD Pattern whose Pattern Point D represents a Liquidity run. You'll also notice a RSI Divergence highlighted on the chart. We're almost at Target 2 but there's more downside potential.