We will probably experience a big bull run in the near term. We should have broken the structure by July 16 and marking a strong uptrend by July 23 or so. The price is very bullish in all timeframes. The previous range correction is already

 There is a so-called Black Swan pattern, which in technical analysis stands for a trend reversal. The target determination of this harmonic pattern typically occurs in two retracements.

This trading week saw renewed attempts by Bitcoin to break through the significant USD 73,961 mark - but so far without success. However, the increasingly tight consolidation points to an imminent breakout. Should Bitcoin break through this threshold, the next target is set at USD 84,918, with the crypto community's ambitious psychological annual target of USD 100,000.While Bitcoin continues to defend its dynamic upward trend and I remain fully invested in my crypto portfolio, the developments in Ethereum also deserve special attention. After a period of weakness against Bitcoin this year, the approval of a new Ethereum fund has led to a sharp rise. This development could see Ethereum outperform Bitcoin in the coming weeks as it brings additional liquidity to the market.I am also keeping an eye on cryptominer stocks and plan to significantly increase these investments at the expense of other positions in the event of positive signals. The sector remains dynamic and offers attractive opportunities, albeit with the usual high risks. Of course, my comments on the high risks and the maximum proportion of the portfolio from my previous posts still apply.

Aufgrund der drei Hochs besteht die Möglichkeit eines neuen Intra Musters. übergeordnet ist weiterhin das Gelbe Muster relevant. Die mögliche Korrektur über das graue Wolfsmaul könnte den Rücklauf 13er gelb bedienen. 

The U.S. election will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, and the S&P 500 clearly seems determined to reach the 6,000 mark before the election. From my perspective, the election outcome is less important than the process of declaring a winner. The market dislikes uncertainty, and the depth of any post-election correction will depend on how quickly a winner is confirmed. Trump currently leads in the polls, and his campaign promises suggest he would likely continue driving the markets, given his plan to spend roughly four times as much as Harris.

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Trusting your analysis amid external Influences

Last week I still had the correction on the chart, now I am assuming a direct "march through" towards 5,400 points and even then I only expect a moderate correction. This is because a positive divergence has formed in the "advanced/declineline". Roughly speaking, this indicator shows the market breadth and has expanded to a new high. At the same time, the S&P500 has not (yet) managed to do so. However, this divergence was the "tip of the scales", which is why I expect a clear continuation of the upward trend. It is interesting to note that it is no longer the technology stocks that are generating the momentum, but rather the representatives of the sectors: Energy, Utilities, Materials, Industry and Communication Services. What is particularly exciting here is the "utilities" theme, behind which the "smart grid or energy infrastructure" theme also lies.

Following up with the trade and chart drawings from yesterday, we can see that we did in fact go above the BSL outlines in yesterday's edition, which would be a move of $1059 or 1.6% within 12 hours per Bitcoin. 

No wild calls, no shilling—just clear, evidence-based chart reading and mentorship.

In short, the S&P 500 continues to move higher and the next target is the 6,000 mark. There will probably be a pause at this level, and if it continues like this, this year will be the best since 2000. It is interesting to note that the Nasdaq 100 is in neutral territory in terms of relative strength against the S&P 500, while the Russell 2000 is actually slightly weaker in this statistic.Of course, there are a number of warning signs that this bull market is overbought. It is worth noting that insider buying has fallen to its lowest level since Covid. In the US fund manager survey, the bears are at an all-time low and the investment ratio of small speculators in the US has never been so bullish since 1988.In normal market phases and without the strong months of a US election year, I would not wait for my stops to take effect, but realize profits. Why am I not doing this? The charts continue to show an upward trend and corrections are at most back to the level of the 21- or 50-day moving average. In short: healthy charts! Next week is the start of the reporting season, and if a correction - the alternative scenario - occurs, that would be very healthy.Nevertheless, I expect a volatile but direct continuation of the upward movement. In this investment cycle, where there are more and more equity experts and advisors, any pre-emptive risk management is detrimental to performance. Enthusiasm for the stock market is increasingly driven by greed - with the MSCI World up more than 15%. The focus is no longer on the “Magnificent 7”, but on strong individual stocks from sectors that are benefiting from renewed interest rate cuts and rising debt - this applies to many sectors. The magic word will be “government support programs for infrastructure investments”.The phase in which institutional investors are repeatedly (rightly) skeptical, while the “small speculators” are increasingly right, is the phase of the “milkmaid bull market”. I am curious to see whether my assessment of the cycle is correct, as it was in 1998-2000. It would be a good time and could last quite a long time.Despite my bullish scenario, I hedge my profits relatively tightly and continuously and focus on individual stock setups, because greed and fear are the worst advisors on the stock market.

Nach dem AMD im März '24 sein ATH erreicht hat bei 227,22$, gab es ein Abverkauf bis zum 05.08.24 bei 122,30$ wo es ein Cluster gab mit dem 1.38 Fib vom rotem ABCD und dem 0.786Fib des Anstieges zum ATH.