In short, the S&P 500 continues to move higher and the next target is the 6,000 mark. There will probably be a pause at this level, and if it continues like this, this year will be the best since 2000. It is interesting to note that the Nasdaq 100 is in neutral territory in terms of relative strength against the S&P 500, while the Russell 2000 is actually slightly weaker in this statistic.Of course, there are a number of warning signs that this bull market is overbought. It is worth noting that insider buying has fallen to its lowest level since Covid. In the US fund manager survey, the bears are at an all-time low and the investment ratio of small speculators in the US has never been so bullish since 1988.In normal market phases and without the strong months of a US election year, I would not wait for my stops to take effect, but realize profits. Why am I not doing this? The charts continue to show an upward trend and corrections are at most back to the level of the 21- or 50-day moving average. In short: healthy charts! Next week is the start of the reporting season, and if a correction - the alternative scenario - occurs, that would be very healthy.Nevertheless, I expect a volatile but direct continuation of the upward movement. In this investment cycle, where there are more and more equity experts and advisors, any pre-emptive risk management is detrimental to performance. Enthusiasm for the stock market is increasingly driven by greed - with the MSCI World up more than 15%. The focus is no longer on the “Magnificent 7”, but on strong individual stocks from sectors that are benefiting from renewed interest rate cuts and rising debt - this applies to many sectors. The magic word will be “government support programs for infrastructure investments”.The phase in which institutional investors are repeatedly (rightly) skeptical, while the “small speculators” are increasingly right, is the phase of the “milkmaid bull market”. I am curious to see whether my assessment of the cycle is correct, as it was in 1998-2000. It would be a good time and could last quite a long time.Despite my bullish scenario, I hedge my profits relatively tightly and continuously and focus on individual stock setups, because greed and fear are the worst advisors on the stock market.
